Despite corporate hype, few signs that the tech is taking jobs — yet
The job market has started looked more shaky. How much is artificial intelligence to blame?
Not much. At least not yet.
A review of employment surveys, interviews with labor market analysts and recent reports on company results has so far only shown little evidence that would support the claims of widespread economic effects from the growing use of AI.
“It is an emotional cause for people, many of whom are determined to see it in the data,” said Martha Gimbel, managing director and co -founder of the budget laboratory at Yale University and former President Joe Biden Economic Adviser. “And it's not there yet.”
Much drives on the payment from the AI. The stock market has achieved record highs primarily thanks to the winning of tech giants such as Nvidia, Google Parent Alphabet, Facebook Parent Meta and Microsoft, which made enormous investments in pumping from AI-related products.
This is exactly the reason, according to analysts, some companies can encourage incentive to the potential of Hype Ai as a disturbing force. By the end of July, according to Data Provider Factset, the profit calls from S&P 500 carried out by S&P 500 were cited for about two thirds of the profit transactions carried out by S&P 500 companies. That is less than half in the first quarter.
In the midst of a downcoming economy, the cost pressure is increasing and the company leaders cause the potential of Hype AI to enable a source of savings – even if it is not quite there yet.
“In 2023, they would have a top -class public company that does a job shortening and indicating rising interest rates or uncertain macro conditions” Website on which the Tech industry pursues layoffs, said. “Today it's AI.”
The most extreme warning about the short-term effects of AI comes from Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of the AI company Anthropic. In May, He said Axios That he extinguished half of all entry lawyers jobs over the next one to five years and increases unemployment to 10% and 20%.
So far, evidence of this scenario has been mixed. All job offers, beginners or in other ways have decreased since 2023. According to Labor Market Analytics Company Revelio LabsAlthough the trend was not linear. According to Revelio, entry-level jobs that were exposed to AI are the fastest back-but high-ranking roles that were exposed to AI actually have to recover.
The broader picture for employees who are most exposed to disorders indicates rather stable employment trends. The official job report of last week showed that office and administrative roles actually have returned to their highs from pandemicWhile employment in other professional sectors such as accounting And legal serviceskept relatively stable.
It is a darker story in technology – but also more nuanced when it comes to the effect of AI. The managers of Amazon and Microsoft both have the ability to signal their business thanks to AI with reduced stress. The tech layoffs pursued by Lee's website achieved a three-month high in July with three corporate enttel, Microsoft and Recruit Holdings, the parents of crime and glass gate.
All three companies mentioned artificial intelligence as a role in reducing jobs, said Lee. However, he found that in the case of recruits there was no details of how the AI had influenced the lost positions. The company simply said that the technology “changes the world”.
“It seems that many of the roles used by AI are cut,” said Lee. “But in other cases it is still used as a cover.”
A representative of Recruit did not answer a request for comments.
The simple calculation behind the AI is that companies will be able to do more with less and increase the overall productivity and at the same time reduce the need for attitudes. However, economists say it is difficult to calculate precise changes in productivity at short notice – even if the broadest national measure has shown a delay in the last quarters.
Most of the advantages of AI are instead for consumers, not for companies, so A upcoming paper From researchers from Carnegie Mellon and Stanford University. If it feels as much value from the current generation of AI to enable normal people, generate e -mails and papers faster or to carry out faster research, do not imagine things.
“Free goods are invisible in the GDP numbers, even if they make consumers better”, the authors, Avinash Collis and Erik Brynjolfson, recently wrote in a Wall Street Journal Op-E-ED. They calculate consumers who were derived from generative AI worth 97 billion US dollars in 2024 in 2024 compared to 7 billion US dollars in income, which are inserted by the Tech companies that actually create AI products.
Economics usually see a “J -curve” effect when transformative technologies are introduced, Collis told NBC News. First there is a bottleneck that can cause some disorders, although these initial effects are often not recorded in official figures. For example, the iPhone has increased the global total volume of photos of billions to trillions, which the workers on the camera giant Kodak directly influenced but created incalculable opportunities elsewhere, said Collis.
“It will probably have a lot of impact, maybe negative on some sectors,” said Collis. “But at the same time, many new jobs could also be created.”
Other indicators indicate that a more pronounced AI effect is based on jobs. The July employment survey by Challenger, Gray and Christmas has found that companies “automation and AI implementation” were responsible for 20,000 job cuts in 2025, whereby around 10,000 are attributed directly to artificial intelligence. Challenger said this shows that “a significant acceleration of the restructuring in connection with AI”.
These figures are put in the shadow by cuts in connection with the state spending declines and the general economic and market conditions that make up almost 500,000 lost roles this year, said Challenger.
Some companies seem to keep the salary statement stable in response to the broad uncertainty in the economy, and use additional resources to examine the potential of AI to increase its final results. Stacy Spikes, CEO from MoviePass, told NBC News that internal workflows in his company will be much more efficient thanks to AI. This made him bring new workers to certain departments such as software. From Tuesday, the Movie Pass career did not show any open positions.
“We have not seen that the headquarters have to increase,” said Spikes.
However, companies like Moviepass still seem to be the exception. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, only about 9% of all companies regularly use new AI tools to manufacture goods or services. As a result, you will only see limited effects at the moment.
“When I look at the effects that AI had on the overall data for the labor market, it looks pretty small for me,” Joseph Briggs, head of the Global Economics team at Goldman Sachs Research. Said Podcast recently in a company. Even for the latest university graduates who tick unemployment rates higher, the anecdotes and the relationship that the anecdotes have to AI are often a little overvalued, “said Briggs.
JP Morgan analysts came to a similar conclusion and found that his research initially “found no significant impact on employment growth”.
But she warned that this could change the next time it was downturned.
For employees, “we believe that in the course of the next recession the speed and the width of the introduction of AI tools and applications at the workplace at work induced to a large extent shifting for professions,” they recently said in a note to customers.
Others remain more optimistic about the potential for new opportunities to overcome negative effects. This is how Jensen sees Huang, co -founder and CEO of Nvidia. As the head of a KI giant, he can also have reason to hyrene potential – but his views are particularly rosier than that of Anthropic from Amodei. Huang Axios said last month That the technology would ultimately lead to more jobs, even if there are redundancies elsewhere.
“All jobs will change,” he said. “Some jobs will be unnecessary. Some people will lose jobs. But many new jobs will be created. … The world will be more productive.”
