Small Business Outlook: Economy, inflation, impact, growth

Small business confidence is high, boosted by continued consumer spending and passage of the tax bill. Uncertainty over tariffs remains and is reflected in a hiring slowdown.  

Tariffs are having a real and devastating impact on thousands of small businesses across the nation as uncertainty, rising costs, and cancellations are hitting home. To help thousands of small businesses navigate the challenges, the U.S. Chamber has been answering questions, holding briefings, sharing resources, and lobbying on their behalf.

Learn more:​ U.S. Chamber to Administration: Small Businesses Need Immediate Relief from Tariffs

Q2 Small Business Index: The Q2 2025 MetLife and U.S. Chamber Small Business Index has the latest data on small business confidence, top challenges, and a special section on employee benefit offerings.

New Small Business Data

Fiserv May Small Business Index (August 4, 2025)

Summary: Consumer spending continues to boost the small business economy.  Foot traffic is flat, but the average per customer spend at checkout ticked up a bit.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in July grew 1.0% (reversing a 3-month slide) and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 3.6% compared to July 2024.

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) July Jobs Report(July 31, 2025)

Summary: June’s hiring gains and compensation increases were reversed in July.

• 57% of small businesses reported hiring or trying to hire in June (down 1 point from June).
• 33% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (3 points lower than June and lowest level in over 4 years.  Note: the 33% level continues to be above the monthly historical average of 25%)).  84% of those trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants (down 2 points from June).
• 29% of small businesses have openings for skilled workers (1 point lower than June) and 12% have openings for unskilled labor (1 point lower than June).
• 14% of small businesses plan to add new positions in the next 3-months (up 1 point from June).
• 27% of small businesses raised compensation in July (6 points lower than June).
• 17% of small businesses plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (down 2 points from June).

WSJ / Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Survey (July 24, 2025)

Summary: Optimism among small businesses goes up after passage of the tax bill.  A stalled increase in fixed investments signals that uncertainty continues to haunt Main Street and is stunting growth. 

• 26% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (9 points higher than June) and 43% say the economy has gotten worse (8 points better than June).
• 33% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (5 points higher than June) and 31% believe the economy will worsen (5 points better than June).
• 45% of small businesses plan on increasing employees this year (1 point lower than June) and 12% plan on decreasing employees (1 point higher than June).
• 32% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (2 points lower than June).
• 56% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (1 point higher than June) and 15% believe revenues will decrease (no change from June).
• 46% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (3 points better than June) and 22% believe that profitability will decrease (1 point better than June).
• 3% of small business owners believe that across-the-board tariffs will have a positive impact on their business (1 point lower than June).  52% believe tariffs will have a negative impact (13 points lower than June).

CNBC | SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index Q3 2025 (July 22, 2025)

Summary: First small business survey with data gathered after enactment of One Big Beautiful Bill Act and confidence is up across the board. 

• 46% of small business owners say that the economy is “excellent” or “good” (16 points higher than last Q).
• 66% of small business owners expect the price of goods to rise (6 points lower than last quarter) and 32% believe inflation has peaked (5 points higher than last quarter).
• 51% of small business owners expect revenues to increase over the next 12-months (10 points higher than last quarter) and 28% expect to increase employment (6 points higher).
• 40% of small business owners expect trade policy to have a negative impact on their businesses in the next 12-months (11 points lower than last quarter).
• 37% of small business owners use artificial intelligence (AI) to help run or operate their business and an equal percentage plan on increasing investment in AI over the next 12-months.
• 75% of the small businesses that use AI cite a positive impact on their business and 4% report a negative impact.

Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council) Small Business Check Up Survey (July 2025)

Summary: Tariffs rank as a high concern for small businesses, with uneven exposure across sectors.

• 67% of small business owners rate the current economic climate as positive and 12% rate it as negative.
• 76% of small business owners are confident in their financial prospects for this year and 22% are not.
• 39% of small business owners expect better economic conditions in 6-months, 33% expect worse, and 25% anticipate no change.
• 80% of small business owners are concerned with inflation, followed by 73% who are concerned with tariffs, with 53% reported negative impact on their operations from tariffs. 35% report no tariff impacts.
• 73% of small business owners stated they benefitted from at least one provision in the 2017 tax law (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). 57% cited the 20% deduction (199A), 36% cited lower corporate rate, 33% cited Sec. 179 expensing, 32% cited bonus depreciation, and 24% cited immediate R&D expensing.
• 57% of small business owners believe that expiring TCJA provisions will harm their operations (survey ended one week prior to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act). And, 71% of small business owners believe several provisions in TCJA should be made permanent.

Fiserv May Small Business Index(July 2, 2025)

Summary: Consumers tighten their spending since May, but sales are up compared to 2024.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in June declined -1.4% from May and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 4.4% compared to June 2024.

MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q2 (June 25, 2025)

Summary: Small business owners’ confidence in their own business and in the local economy increases while negativity towards the national economy remains the same.

• 68% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (6 points higher than last quarter) and 73% are comfortable with their current cash flow (7 points higher than last quarter).
• 41% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (4 points higher than last quarter).
• 24% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (5 points higher than last quarter) and 45% are negative (1 point better than last quarter).
• 48% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (10 points lower than last quarter and the 14th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 65% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 28% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (8 points higher than last quarter) and 42% expect to increase staff in the next year (5 points higher than last quarter).
• 70% of small employers report offering at least one type of employee benefit, with health insurance topping the list.  Costs and complexity are the top barriers for providing more benefits.

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey (June 5, 2025)​

Summary: A supermajority of small business owners are optimistic and are planning to grow in 2025 even as frustration with Washington, DC remains high.

• 75% of small business owners are optimistic about their future and 72% are planning on growing throughout 2025.
• 51% of small business owners believe that interest rates are too high to afford a loan.
• 81% feel that small businesses are not prioritized in Washington, DC.
• 90% of small business owners want Congress to bolster tax certainty, predictability, and simplicity.
• 78% of small business owners want Congress to reinstate full and immediate research and development (R&D) expensing.
• 36% of small businesses currently feel the impact of increased tariffs and 38% are expecting to experience negative impacts caused by tariffs.
• 80% of small business owners believe that regulatory red tape takes time away from managing and growing their business.
• 55% of small business owners want the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) to focus on cutting red tape.

Looking for More Small Business Insights?

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America’s Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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