Premier League predictions and best bets: Newcastle to drag Spurs further into relegation | Football news

Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, gives his thoughts on the midweek Premier League fixture card.

Chelsea vs Leeds, Tuesday 7:30 p.m.

One of my favorite betting angles this season is center forwards fouling center backs.

This season's Premier League is a deadly product to watch. The data and the eye test tell the same story in that the league has returned to the franchise with much more emphasis on getting the first touch. And when that happens, center forwards don't just score goals, they start committing fouls.

The result? Central defenders are fouled more often than the market predicts.

Joao Pedro came to life under Liam Rosenior, putting in electric performances as a central striker where he also committed a good number of fouls. In six starts as a center forward under the direction of the new boss. he committed eight fouls. Joe Rodon is then in the firing line when it comes to fouls committed where he is a big 4/1 with Sky Bet to be committed +2 times.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Everton vs Bournemouth, Tuesday 7:30 p.m.

Everton midfielder James Garner looks to have had a solid game to pick up +2 fouls in this one at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has reached that mark in 10 of his 20 starts in central midfield this season, showing he is no stranger to putting his foot down in key moments.

Bournemouth's Alex Scott, meanwhile, has been a magnet for fouls, making 14 draws in his last eight appearances. The battle between Garner and Scott in the middle of the park should see the Everton man make some challenges as he attempts to disrupt Scott's rhythm.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: James Garner +2 fouls committed (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Tottenham vs Newcastle, Tuesday 7:30 p.m.

Just two wins in 16 Premier League games have left Tottenham just six points from safety and suddenly flirting with the drop.

Sky Bet isn't kidding either. Spurs are now just 10/1 to go down.

If they don't get back into form quickly and West Ham keep winning, that relegation could become very real. This is getting serious.

Spurs are easily deflected here at 19/10, with Sky Bet also having won just one of their last 11 home Premier League matches.

Meanwhile, when the chips are down, Eddie Howe usually gives Newcastle a result and he will use the frustration of the home fans as a weapon in the hope that the north London faithful will turn on their team. That's why a fast start is expected, making the half-time/full-time market for Newcastle/Newcastle at 5/2 with Sky Bet a smart way to increase the chances of an away win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8:15 p.m.

One of the standout bets on the midweek card is Crysensio Summerville who will have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet. The winger has been a thorn in Premier League defenses of late, recording nine shots on target in his last six matches.

Nuno Espirito Santo's tactical system clearly suits Summerville, giving him the freedom to drift into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United side that has shown vulnerability, expect Summerville to be in full swing for another goal attempt.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Crysensio Summerville +1 shots on target (Evens with Sky Bet)

Aston Villa vs Brighton, Wednesday 7:30 p.m.

Brighton's swings are a great advantage to exploit. Just one win in 12 games isn't a failure, it's a crisis – and yet the markets still view them as a dangerous team. Villa, notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, is on offer on 10/11 with Sky Bet for maximum points. That seems generous considering what Brighton serves.

Fabian Hurzeler's team is struggling to gain creativity and confidence. The end could be near for him as Brighton boss.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Crystal Palace vs Burnley, Wednesday 7:30 p.m.

Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man with a big point to prove in his debut. It wasn't always pretty or pleasant to watch, but he made his presence felt in that 1-0 win at Brighton. Three fouls and a yellow card during his first appearance show an attacker visibly eager to impose himself and assert himself.

Strand Larsen commits an average of around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That's potentially almost two yellow card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the aura of a striker playing like it's only a matter of time before he overshoots, misses a challenge or lash out in frustration. As he did at Brighton when stopping an attack with a cynical tug of the shirt.

Strand Larsen is a striker – of course – but a touchy, combative striker who clearly wants to make his mark. The odds are gigantic at 19/2 with Sky Bet for a card.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Jorgen Strand Larsen will be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)

Manchester City vs Fulham, Wednesday 7:30 p.m.

This version of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City always gives you a chance. We are far from their controlled and possession-obsessed style.

Fulham, for its part, is not there to make up the numbers. The two scoring teams have succeeded in 12 of their last 15 games and have achieved this feat in their last four visits to the Etihad. It's not luck, it's a proven model of being able to hit City on the counter, capitalize on mistakes and play with freedom.

City will score – of course – but Fulham will probably join the party. Which two teams will score seems a 4/5 bet with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Wednesday 7:30 p.m.

Morgan Gibbs-White and the Wolves. Make no mistake, there is some composure there.

Every touch will be scrutinized, every run will be booed and if he gets on the scoresheet, emotions will explode.

Gibbs-White isn't shy either. He is combative, fiery and at 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and collect a card, the value is glaring. Picture the scene: a Gibbs-White goal sparks celebrations in what has now become a very big game for Forest. The shirt may come loose, triggering a reservation.

Combine the two via the Sky Bet BuildABet feature and 10/1 looks like a bargain.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Sunderland vs Liverpool, Wednesday 8:15 p.m.

If you want a betting market that rewards understanding of football matches rather than predicting perfection, the “submit a foul” market is as good as it gets.

Bookmakers evaluate fouls largely against averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully explain is the role in a specific match. Like a foul-ridden center forward playing against a tricky central defender. That's what we have here.

This is not a case of Van Dijk losing control or composure. This rarely happens.

This is Van Dijk being dragged into a very specific type of duel against his opponent Brian Bobbey, who is not a subtle center forward. His game is built on confrontation.

Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, which is a huge number for a striker playing in a team dominated by possession. Even more telling is the recent trend of nine fouls in his last six games, in which he intimidates big-name opponents. Van Dijk is 10/11 with Sky Bet to win +1 fouls.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Brentford vs Arsenal, Thursday 8:15 p.m.

Arsenal are scoring goals at a relentless rate, conceding here and there and making life very, very difficult for anyone trying to silence them. It's a perfect cocktail to support the 2.5+ goal line when the odds are flirting around the tie bar. Their last 13 games are averaging 3.4 goals per 90 minutes and 10 of those games have been over 2.5 goals.

Even without Brentford's contribution, Arsenal alone could easily cover this line. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 matches. It's a ruthless form of attack from a team that knows exactly how to punish mistakes.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | BEST BET JONES KNOWS: Over 2.5 goals (tied with Sky Bet)

Follow midweek matches live on the Sky Sports app and watch match highlights for free shortly after full time.

Jones Knows best bets:

1pt on: Jorgen Strand Larsen will be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)

Hat-trick 1 pt on: James Garner +2 fouls committed, Crysensio Summerville with +1 shots on target and over 2.5 goals at Brentford against Arsenal (14/1 with Sky Bet)