Donald Trump’s Truth Social Is Launching a Polymarket Competitor
“If you have to point out one reason [crypto prediction markets] are able to return to the US, you have to point to the Trump administration,” says Zach Hamilton, founder of crypto startup Sarcophagus, in an interview with WIRED. “Donald Trump. I mean, that's it.”
Even before the advent of Truth Predict, the Trump family had a financial interest in the spread of prediction markets in the US.
In January, Donald Trump Jr. at Kalshi as a strategic consultant. Then, in August, Polymarket received an investment from 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm where Trump Jr. serves as a partner. As part of the agreement, Trump Jr. joined Polymarket's advisory board.
The ties between the Trump family and Polymarket, forged just as Polymarket was looking to re-enter the US, have drawn scrutiny from critics who argue the investment could present a conflict of interest. The deal creates an opportunity, they argue, for the Trump family to take advantage of changes in policy instituted by the Trump administration.
“No one is saying that members of the president's family can't participate in normal capitalist activities in a capitalist country,” said Jeff Hauser, executive director at the Revolving Door Project, an organization that seeks to scrutinize the behavior of elected officials. “But Polymarket is the subject of heated political controversy. As such, the investment reflects a significant conflict of interest – and an avoidable one.”
“Neither the president nor his family have ever engaged, or will ever engage, in conflicts of interest,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to WIRED.
Polymarket, TMTG and 1789 Capital did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The launch of the Truth Predict is also a scenario in which separate facets of the Trump family's business empire can effectively compete against each other.
“From a venture capital perspective, many of us don't like to invest in competing projects. We try to avoid that,” says Chris Perkins, managing partner at crypto VC firm CoinFund. “We are trying to identify category winners.”
Already, companies associated with the Trump family are working competing bitcoin treasuries. In June, a dispute broke out over which corporate entities were allowed to launch an “official” Trump-branded crypto wallet.
